CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-04-15T06:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30075/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E30 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-15T05:36Z. ARRIVAL: Sudden increase in B-total from 5nT to 15nT detected by both DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-04-19T04:53Z. Simultaneous sudden increase in density at the start time of arrival, 2024-04-19T04:53Z. A sudden increase in temperature and speed is observed later at 2024-04-19T13:44Z, likely indicating the arrival of a flux rope. Corresponding rotation of B-field components observed in DSCOVR, which was the primary spacecraft at the time. Signature also observed in ACE. A gradual increase to peak value of 18nT was also observed during flux rope arrival. Bz remained predominantly in the negative regime for this arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-19T04:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-19T03:19Z (-9.52h, +9.11h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/04/15 06:30Z Plane of Sky 1: 17:30Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction Plane of Sky 2: 20:30Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction POS Difference: 3:00 POS Midpoint: 19:00Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:30 Numeric View/Impact Type: 2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.43 Travel Time: ~7.43 * 12:30 = 92:49 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-04-19T03:19Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/04/15 23:22ZLead Time: 77.50 hour(s)
Difference: 1.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-04-15T23:23Z
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